DEMS IN VERY HOT WATER – AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  The great Michael Barone, who predicted the Democratic disaster in 1994 by looking at poll numbers in individual races where incumbents were running, now does the same, and again has no encouragement for Democrats.  From the Washington Examiner:

Usually House incumbents don’t trail challengers in polls at any point in the campaign, because they almost always start off better known. For an incumbent to trail in a poll is a sign of serious danger.

Such signs abound for Democrats these days. For example, Republican Jim Renacci leads incumbent Democrat John Boccieri 47%-36% in Ohio 16. Boccieri won this district, which had been held by Republicans since 1950, by a 55%-44% margin in 2008. He switched from no to yes on the health care bill in March 2010. That doesn’t seem to have helped.

And...

...Republican former Congressman Steve Chabot leading Democratic incumbent Steve Driehaus 53%-39%. Driehaus was one of the “Stupak five” who said they wouldn’t support a health care bill that funded abortion but who turned around and provided the key votes that passed the bill March 21.

And...

Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen reports that Republican Rick Berg leads 18-year incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy 52%-43%.

And...

And here’s a shocker from a governor race. According to Rasmussen, Republican Chris Dudley leads Democrat John Kitzhaber for governor of Oregon 45%-44%. That’s not statistically significant, but it’s a lot different from Kitzhaber’s winning margins of 51%-42% in 1994 and 64%-30% in 1998. The last time a Republican was elected governor of Oregon was 1978.

COMMENT:  Don't relax.  The election is five months away.  The White House is already in campaign mode.  Never underestimate Democrats in danger of losing their publicly funded health plans.

May 27, 2010